If you have been reading the property pages this year you will have seen prime central London described as down nine per cent and down three per cent within the same fortnight. Both figures are accurate. They measure different things, and the difference is worth understanding before you decide what to do with your house.
LonRes had prime central London down 9.0% over the year to the second quarter, which it noted was the largest annual fall since 2009. Knight Frank had it down 3.3% over the year to August. Savills had prime central London down 1.7% over the second quarter alone. LonRes measures achieved prices per square foot on completed sales, so it captures what buyers actually negotiated and what mix of property happened to trade. Knight Frank runs a repeat-valuation index. Savills uses agent assessment. In a market where negotiation is doing most of the work, an achieved-price index will fall faster than a valuation index. That is not a contradiction; it is the point.
The practical translation is that valuations have softened moderately and negotiations have softened a great deal.
The negotiation numbers
Across prime London the average discount to asking price in the first half of this year was 10.4%. At £5m and above it was 13.0%. More than half of sales completed in June involved at least one published price reduction. Average time on market was 186 days, against 178 days in the first half of last year.
Set against that, the longer view: prime central London is roughly 23% below where it stood eleven years ago on Knight Frank’s numbers, and about 26% below the 2014 peak on Savills’. Prime London values sit around 5.7% under the 2017 to 2019 average. This is not a market that has recently turned; it is a market that has been adjusting for a decade.
Supply is the pressure
New sales instructions in July were 26.2% above the 2017 to 2019 July average on LonRes’s figures, and stock is around 65% higher than at the end of 2019. There is simply a great deal to choose from, and a buyer with choice negotiates. Knight Frank noted in September that buyers are using pre-Budget speculation and bond market nerves to negotiate the price down rather than to walk away.
That last point deserves emphasis, because it is the encouraging part. Buyers are not absent. Knight Frank recorded prime central London transactions in the three months to August running 6% above the same period last year, and about 2% above the five-year average. Deals are being done. They are being done at a discount, after a longer wait.
The exception is the very top. At £5m and above, LonRes recorded July transactions down 20% year on year, properties going under offer down 50%, and new instructions down 30%. Super-prime is behaving differently from the rest of prime: fewer buyers, but also fewer sellers. If you are in that bracket, the thin market cuts both ways and the case for launching quietly rather than publicly is stronger than usual.
What this means if you are deciding
Three things follow from the data rather than from opinion.
The first is that the asking price is doing more damage than it used to. With more than half of sales requiring a reduction and stale stock discounting at 19.3% against 3.9% for property that sells within three months, an ambitious launch price is not a negotiating position. It is a six-month delay followed by a worse outcome.
The second is that presentation and preparation matter more when the buyer has forty alternatives than when they have four. That is not a claim about staging premiums; it is a claim about attention.
The third is that the Budget on 28 October sits directly in the middle of the autumn market. There is speculation about property taxation and we are not going to repeat it. What is already legislated is enough to be going on with: property income tax rates rise two points in April 2027, and from April 2028 the High Value Council Tax Surcharge applies to English homes worth £2m and above, payable by the owner. Every house we sell falls into that band.
If you want a view on your own property rather than on the market, request a valuation. We will give you one within 24 to 48 hours, and we will tell you if we think you should wait.
Hanane Dawson, Founder
Sources: LonRes Prime London Market Update Summer 2026 and Market Dashboard August 2026. Knight Frank, 9 September 2026. Savills via Estate Agent Today, 6 July 2026. Budget, 26 November 2025. High Value Council Tax Surcharge consultation, 19 May 2026.