For four years the quarterly news from prime central London has been some version of the same headline: prices down again. This month Knight Frank broke the run. Its index recorded a rise of 0.3% in prime central London in the three months to September, the first quarterly increase in four years. It is a small number, and it deserves to be read carefully rather than celebrated or dismissed.
What Knight Frank reported
On Knight Frank's figures, published at the start of October, prime central London prices were 0.3% higher over the quarter and 2% lower over the year. That annual fall is the smallest for 18 months. In prime outer London, prices were 0.6% lower over the year. Values in prime central London remain about 22% below their peak in August 2015.
Activity has steadied as well. Exchanges across prime central and outer London in the year to September were 2.5% lower than in the previous twelve months, against a fall of 14% recorded in March. Above £10 million, Knight Frank counted 121 transactions in the twelve months to September, the same as a year earlier, with total spending up 14% to £2.4 billion.
Knight Frank's explanation is behaviour rather than economics. Its head of London sales, Liza-Jane Kelly, put it simply: "We are starting to see sellers become more realistic with their price."
Why other indices tell a different story
Knight Frank's index is based on valuations of a basket of prime properties. LonRes measures something else: the achieved price per square foot on sales that actually completed. On LonRes's August figures, published on 17 September, achieved prices in prime London were 7.0% lower than a year earlier, buyers secured an average discount of 10.4% to the asking price, and half the stock on the market had been reduced at least once. Nationwide, whose figures come from its own mortgage lending across the whole capital, recorded London prices up 0.4% on the year in the third quarter.
None of these is wrong. A valuation index can turn before achieved prices do, because negotiations on individual sales lag the broader sentiment, and an index covering all of London says little about Belgravia or Hampstead. We would put it this way: the evidence suggests the falls are slowing, not that values are rising across prime London. A single quarter of 0.3% is too small to call a recovery, and we would not call it one.
The part that matters most for sellers
The interesting thread in Knight Frank's commentary is that improved activity has come from sellers adjusting, not from buyers paying more. That fits LonRes's picture of widespread reductions. Buyers who have watched prices fall for years now see value, and they act when a property is priced in line with the evidence.
The practical lesson is uncomfortable but consistent. A first quarterly rise is not a reason to price a home on the assumption that the market will catch up with the asking figure. If anything, the improvement has been driven by the homes that did not take that view.
What we would weigh this autumn
The Budget on 28 October is the next event that could move sentiment, and the Bank of England's next rate decision follows on 5 November. We are not going to forecast either. What we can say is that a property priced on recent comparable sales, presented well and launched with a clear plan is in a better position whatever those announcements contain.
If you are deciding whether to sell, the questions worth answering are specific ones. What have genuinely comparable homes near you achieved in the past six months, not what were they listed at? How much choice will a buyer have in your price band and postcode? And how does your own timetable fit a process that, on current averages, takes many months from listing to completion?
Dolce Vita sells property across the UK from Berkeley Square House in Mayfair, and works with partner agencies for clients buying abroad. If you would like those questions answered for your own home, Request a valuation; we acknowledge the same working day and return a written valuation within 24 to 48 hours.
Hanane Dawson, Founder
Sources: Knight Frank prime London figures for the three months to September 2026, reported 2 to 5 October 2026 (PrimeResi, Property Industry Eye, Estate Agent Today). LonRes prime London figures for August 2026, 17 September 2026. Nationwide House Price Index, September 2026 and Q3 regional figures, October 2026. Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary, 17 September 2026. Office for Budget Responsibility, 2026.